Gold Price Forecast: Bulls need to break weekly counter trendline $1,805 and $1,810 breakout point – FXStreet

  • Gold is testing a critical level of resistance at $1,805 and near $1,810 as US dollar crumbles. 
  • The greenback has dropped back to test the 93 figure as risk appetite improves.

The price of gold is flat in Asia, with the bulls comfortably sat above the psychological $1,800 figure following a glitch in the US dollar’s flight plan.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD hovers between $1,805 and $1,806.02 while markets await the next catalyst to either make or break the bull’s clutch. 

Traders are waiting on Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole for the next cues on taper in what could be the makings of the next upsurge in the US dollar and a headwind for precious metals. 

However, traders are now moving in droves into the dovish camp which has knocked the greenback of its throne. 

On Wall Street, the dollar index DXY, which measures its performance against a basket of six currencies, fell from highly bullish territory to back below the 200-day simple moving average to test the bullish commitment near 93 the figure.

It was down some 0.57% to 92.95 towards the close on Wall Street. The index hit a nine-month high last week, climbing nearly 5% from May lows, as investors firmed up bets the Fed will start scaling back stimulus policies spurred by the pandemic ahead of some other central banks such as the ECB.

However, markets have concluded there’s not going to be a “taper tantrum” like in 2013 following last week comments from Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Fed, who dented those expectations when he said he might reconsider the need for an early start to tapering if the virus harms the economy. 

TD Securities sees ”little chance of an announcement and instead expects the Chair’s speech to echo the latest July meeting minutes, suggesting that QE tapering is likely by year-end, but don’t expect a September announcement,” their analysts wrote.

”This leaves November and December as likely timelines for the taper announcement. Notwithstanding, by revealed preference, our measure of asymmetry relative to real rates suggested that the pain trade in precious metals has likely run its course.”

Meanwhile, analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that they think the September 21-22 FOMC meeting is a more likely venue to formally announce tapering.  

”New macro forecasts will be released then.  More importantly, the Fed will have gotten another jobs report on September 3 that will hopefully be strong enough to trigger tapering.’

However, it may not be the timings that are important, but the speed of which the Fed moves to lift off in terms of raising rates. 

”It’s clear that once tapering starts, the Fed wants to get it over quickly, perhaps in the span of six months rather than twelve, the analysts at BBH expect. 

”As such, our current call is for an explicit tapering announcement at the September FOMC, tapering of $20 bln in USTs and $10 bln in MBS at each meeting starting in November, and completion by March 2022.”

”If the economy continues to develop as the Fed expects, then this would allow for a waiting period of 6-9 months before rate lift-off in Q4 2022.” the analysts concluded. 

In such a scenario, the US dollar will remain atractove to investors for its yield advantage over currencies in other parts of the world, such as Europe, where the central bank is to remain behind the Fed. 

Gold & DXY technical analysis

Meanwhile, the US dollar has taken a knock:

Dollar Index Spot 2021 08 23T172351.702 637653578433967812

However, the price has run into a wall of support at a compelling 61.8% Fibo level that has a confluence with horizontal structure as well as a dynamic supporting trendline. 

Therefore, if the bulls can hold on at this juncture, it will not take too much to see the US dollar regain its composure and head higher towards a weekly/monthly close above 93.50 as per the daily and monthly charts below:

Dollar Index Spot 2021 08 23T172912.462 637653581632732278

Dollar Index Spot 2021 08 23T172952.358 637653582087071331

Meanwhile, 1,805 is a solid resistance on the weekly chart, (see last chart illustration below, (Weekly chart)).

On a daily basis, the gold price will need to break 1,810 before any conviction can be given to the rally:

XAU USD 2021 08 23T173420.565 637653584951650854

In doing so, it will likely close above both the dynamic trendline and horizontal resistance on a daily basis which would be the foundations for an upside continuation towards prior daily highs near 1,830 and then 1,900:

XAU USD 2021 08 23T173755.797 637653586873833873

Weekly chart

On the other hand, should the US dollar resurge through 93.50, 93.80 will be on the bulls radar which will expose gold to a downside extension from the current weekly counter-trendline resistance:

XAU USD 2021 08 23T175341.848 637653596325692848

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.